حسين صابر يكتب: ماكينة الاقتصاد المصري ستتوقف خلال أيام..بسبب الدولار

14925436_1810720419211655_3213836971976865272_nماكينة الاقتصاد المصري تعاني من حالة تباطؤ شديد وهي مهددة بالتوقف التام خلال أيام أو خلال أسابيع قليلة. لقد جعلنا من الدولار الوقود المحرك لهذه الماكينة، فعندما شح في لأسواق وارتفعت أسعاره في السوق الحقيقية (لا السوداء كما يقولون) بنسبة 100% أو أكثر عن السعر المضحك الذي كان البنك المركزي يتعامل به، اختل النظام العام للماكينة الاقتصادية فحتى سعيد الحظ الذي كان يمكن أن يحصل على الدولار بالسعر الرسمي فإن أفضل تصرف له هو أن يعيد بيعه في السوق الموازية ويحقق ربحاً فاحشاً (أكثر من 100%) وبالتالي لم تعد له مصلحة في استخدام الدولار في الغرض الاقتصادي الأصلي.

ونحن نستخدم الدولار في كل شيئ تقريبا: (1)استيراد السلع الكمالية والترفيهية وقد يتوقف المستورد عن بعض هذا النشاط خوفاً من إعراض المستهلكين.

(2)استيراد مستلزمات الانتاج وهذا يمثل النسبة الغالبة في أكثر الصناعات المحلية وهذا بدأ يتوقف بمعدلات متسارعة، لأن ارتفاع سعر الدولار سيؤدي الى لارتفاع المنتج النهائي وهو أمر فوق احتمال معظم المستهلكين، بل ان سعر الدولار يختلف من يوم لآخر وبالتالي فإن الفترة ما بين الاستيراد وإخراج المنتج النهائي طويلة، والدولار يزيد بـ 50 أو 100 قرش في اليوم وهي أمور فوق احتمال أي حساب اقتصادي، وتوقف الانتاج أفضل لحين استقرار الأمور. إذن هناك توسع في توقف المصانع.

(3)استيراد السلع الضرورية كالسلع الغذائية وهذه كارثة لأن زجاجة الزيت سيزيد سعرها من 10 جنيهات إلى 20 أو 30 فهل سيتحمل المستهلك ذلك. لابد من التوقف اذن حتى تستقر الأمور. أصبحت تنتشر فكرة اقتحام المحلات ليلاً واغتصاب السلع مجاناً. لقد دفعتم الفقراء اذن لحالة الجنون.

(4)نحن نسدد ثمن وقود الطاقة بالدولار للشركات الأجنبية في مصر، ونستورد باقي احتياجاتنا بالدولار بعد توقف السعودية. ونسدد القروض طبعا بالدولار وهي تساوي 300 مليار جنيه سنويا (ستصبح الآن 600 مليار جنيه!).

(5)هذا الوضع أدى إلى التوسع في التعامل بالدولار في السوق العقاري، وأدى إلى دفع المودعين لسحب أموالهم بالجنيه المعرضة للتآكل لشراء عقارات لأن العقارات تزيد قيمتها.

كل هذا المشهد أدى بجميع الأطراف في العملية الاقتصادية إلى التوقف والانتظار وهي دائرة جهنمية تساهم في المزيد من انهيار الجنيه كما حدث لليرة التركية في التسعينات من القرن الماضي. فأصبحت كل التعاملات بالدولار. ولكن المشكلة عندنا أن هناك شحاً في الدولار نفسه!! وبالتالي فنحن أمام دوامة مفزعة. (ومن مؤشرات ذلك الارتفاع الجنوني للذهب).

الاعلام مهد لضرورة تعويم الجنيه وكأنه حل عبقري أو حل وحيد، وهذا تحصيل حاصل لأن الجنيه قد تم تعويمه بالفعل في السوق الموازية. والاعلام والحكام يسمون هذا إصلاحاً قد تأخر!! وهذا ضحك على النفس وخداع للشعب. من قال أن الجنيه لم يتم تخفيضه من قبل عدة مرات ولكن المسطرة اختلفت فقط، فكان الدولار بـ 3 جنيهات والآن بـ 8 جنيهات والمطلوب رفعه إلى 18 أو 20 جنيها. الجديد أن الدولار انكمش والانتاج المحلي انكمش والاعتماد على الخارج زاد. حكامنا لم يتوقفوا عن تنفيذ تعليمات الصندوق من أيام السادات حتى الآن والمسألة كانت مسألة معددلات ومستويات في السرعة فحسب. والوقود ارتفعت أسعاره أكثر من مرة والآن مطلوب ارتفاع آخر وهكذا فهذا ليس إصلاحاً ولكن انبطاحاً لشروط الصندوق في ظل المزيد من العجز، أقصد العجز السياسي والاقتصادي لا عجز الميزانية!!.

الاعلاميون يزورون الصين وكوريا الجنوبية وسنغافورة ويعودون مبهورين دون أن يفهموا شيئا. في كوريا الجنوبية طبقوا سياسة (إحلال الواردات) أي انتاج السلع التي تستورد. لو اتبعنا هذه السياسة لتم حل مشكلة الدولار (خلال عامين). والحقيقة المشكلة ليست مشكلة دولار هذا مظهر الأزمة. في كوريا الجنووبية وغيرها من النمور الآسيوية كان الحاكم يشكل مجلساً اقتصادياً لتخطيط الصناعات الوطنية حتى تنتج ما تستورده من الخارج ويتم ذلك بمشاركة القطاع الخاص. لدينا الآن سلع عديدة مستوردة نحن قادرون على انتاجها..مثلا: الصابون..مستحضرات التجميل- الأدوية- كل أنواع الملابس والمنسوجات والمفروشات….الخ هل يعلم أحد أننا في بلد الغزل والنسيج (بلد طلعت حرب منذ ثلاثينيات القرن الماضي) لم يعد لدينا غزل وان صناعات المحلة تعتمد على استيراد الغزل من ايران وسوريا (ولاشك أن الاستيراد من سوريا توقف الآن!).

في البلاد الآسيوية كانت لجان التخطيط الاقتصادي تعمل كلجان حرب حتى تم إيقاف إستيراد كل ما يمكن صناعته داخل البلاد.

كما لدينا صناعات محلية وهمية فهي مجرد توكيلات تعتمد على استيراد المادة الأساسية من الشركة الأم ومع ذلك يكتبون عليها (صنع في مصر) وهو خداع للنفس وخداع للشعب فمثل هذه الصناعات متوقفة الآن حتى يتم التخفيض النهائي والتعويم الدائم للجنيه.

العبودية للدولار
يجب أن يكون معلوماً ان الاجبار على التعامل بالدولار هي أوامر من السيد الأمريكي وعلى الاعلاميين الذين يهاجمون أمريكا التي تتآمر على مصر أن يعرفوا أننا نحن الذين نخضع لأوامر أمريكا. التعامل الخارجي بالدولار تعليمات أمريكية سياسية وهي ترفض التمرد على ذلك، وحتى نكون أسياد أنفسنا علينا أن نتحرر من هذه العبودية.

مثلا السياحة الروسية (قبل تفجير الطائرة) لمصر تأثرت بارتفاع سعر الدولار في روسيا وعندما طلب الروس وطلبت شركات الياحة المصرية التعامل بالروبل رفض البنك المركزي المصري، رغم أن الروبل يمكن الاستفادة به في الاستيراد من روسيا.

ويجب أن يكون معلوما ان دول البريكس تتعامل بعملاتها بين بعضها البعض وبالمقايضة (الهند- الصين- روسيا- البرازيل- جنوب أفريقيا): فالهند تشتري الأسلحة من روسيا بالمقايضة مثلا. فلماذا لانتعامل مع هذه الددول بهذه الطريقة؟ ولماذا لانتعامل بالعملة الصينية؟

وفيما يتعلق بالبلاد العربية لماذا لانعقد اتفاقيات ثنائية مع السودان وغيرها على الاعتراف المتبادل بعملات البلدين، بالتالي لانحتاج لاستخدام الدولار. ولكن هل يملك حكامنا تحدي إرادة أمريكا لتحقيق مصالحنا الوطنية؟!.

إن أمثال دولنا التابعة هي التي حولت العملة الأمريكية إلى عملة مقدسة، لأن كل الاتفاقيات الدولية حول الدولار كمعيار للعملات الأخرى انتهت منذ زمن . وكل الدول المحترمة تأخذ بنظام سلة العملات. ولذلك فهناك مواجهة حقيقية بين الدولار واليورو وبينهما مع الاسترليني والين والعملة الصينية اليووان (وهذا الأمر يحتاج لمقال مستقل).

العملة هي علم (أو راية) الدولة الوطنية، ونحن الذين حولنا الجنيه المصري إلى “خرقة بالية” بينما كان له قيمة ووزن في العهد الملكي البائد.

وفي عهود تاريخية قريبة انتشر في بلاد المشرق تعبير (مصاري) كإسم للنقود، ومصاري تعود لمصر حيث كانت العملة المصرية هي العملة الأقوى والمعترف بها في مختلف بلاد الشام وحتى الآن إذا ذهبت لبنان أو سوريا، سيقولون لك: معك مصاري؟! أي هل معك نقود؟!

119 تعليق

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  73. To James Canning,Here’s a quote from Meridor reported by Reuters today:<>This is a clear political statement by Israel, publicly the most hawkish toward Iran, showing not only that 20% does not constitute a red line for the americans but, implicitly, their own acceptance of this facts on the ground. The US, therefore the UK, France and Germany, have, during the last 10 years, constantly breached their own red lines concerning Iran’s enrichment, including the 20%, “Ils vont continuer a avaler d’autres couleuvres”.

  74. Posts like this brighten up my day. Thanks for taking the time.

  75. 5a1మంచి పుస్తకం పరిచయం చేసినందుకు సంతోషం.ఒక చిన్న ప్రశ్న: HBT వాళ్ళు 1961 నాటి పుస్తకాన్ని *పూర్తిగా* అచ్చు వేశారా? naa daggara 1961 నాటిదే వుంది. ఎందుకు అడుగుతున్నానంటే, ఈమధ్య చాలా పునర్ముద్రణలు, ముఖ్యంగా విశాలాంధ్ర వారివి, (ఉదా: మహోదయం, ఆళ్వార్ స్వామి నవలలు, …)”సంక్షిప్తీకరించి” ముద్రించబడుతున్నాయి.పోతే, పుస్తకాలు *కొని* చదవని వారికి “వనవాసి” మొదటి ప్రచురణ DLIలో వుం(డే)ది. – శ్రీనివాస్

  76. whoa, you've found some beauties for us this week Tricia. I don't think I could ever not be in awe of that silver colored weathered barn board look. it's so….beautiful! thanks for hosting Barn Charm each week. and I really like it too when you show the original and let us mouse over. that is very cool! happy Tuesday to you!

  77. Helen i remember when i used to google up places to eat yours would come up in google search. From memory I think yours was the only food blog i knew of in the days.Now whoa!!! there's soo many its hard to keep up hehe. Food seems to be a trend these days almost like fashionable clothing ^_^

  78. Certo, la levatura di alcuni è direttamente proporzionale al loro spirito polemico.La Bindi e quanti la difendono è la peggiore merce cattolica possibile nel mercato politico attuale.

  79. It’s a real nice together with handy section of details. I’m happy that you choose to embraced this unique valuable information about. You need to sustain people advised by doing this. Appreciate it with regard to discussing.

  80. Voor een winterjas?Ik weet niet goed wat je graag ziet, maar ik heb wel een paar patroontjes in ottobre's staan denk ik. Ik heb ook al een keer een patroon met knopen gebruikt, maar er dan een rits ingezet. Dat is ook niet zo moeilijk om aan te passen. Kwam jij ook niet naar het Leuvens Stiksel? Dan kan ik dan evt mijn boekjes meebrengen.

  81. Always a good job right here. Keep rolling on through.

  82. Härligt att du gillar "oss" ;-D Jag har dessutom jobbat nÃ¥gra Ã¥r pÃ¥ en jouröppen vÃ¥rdcentral, hur bra som helst!Ta´t lugnt nu och vila ut eländet sÃ¥ ska du se att du rockar vidare fort som tusan igen!Kram H

  83. “We disclosed our anti-piracy technology to Warner Bros. in 2003 at their request, under strict confidentiality, expecting to be treated fairly,” MPV says in a statement.So…you gave technology for screwing people to a company that routinely screws people…and expected them to treat you fairly?Must have eaten a lot of lead paint as a child.VA:F [1.9.21_1169](from 0 votes)

  84. To be honest, I enjoyed playing (well except for the penultimate boss fight, which was really annoying) but had really mixed feelings about enjoying it! So I think we agree on this one.

  85. Hey CharlesYou nailed it. Larger than yourself. That is… a vision that helps other people in some way and where the reward for your work is FAR more than just monetary.As an example, getting comments on this blog post alone is as rewarding (if not more) than making PLR sales!!thanksjustin

  86. That’s going to make things a lot easier from here on out.

  87. Phenomenal breakdown of the topic, you should write for me too!

  88. Neil,Yes, family life is a blessing and it looks so good on you. Having known you as a single man and seeing the peace you now obviously possess, I love seeing the difference. You also look rested…more than I do. I really was taking a subject I need to work on and go for it. The benefits of being well rested are all there for the taking. I am making a conscious effort to discipline myself and I feel better and better. Thanks… Anne

  89. Wow! This can be one particular of the most useful blogs We have ever arrive across on this subject. Basically Magnificent. I am also a specialist in this topic so I can understand your hard work.

  90. im exploding with my buddy frrg lkii tete hola amigoz hfdiefguehjhgedkswmfyhev ydwgdh jddj hdhbd djhdhdg dshgdgdn cdtsghtdf fsdf maddi jane had a speacial doy? joy hay i love s gyu

  91. Yes, this is the best holiday. It was my mother’s favorite, as well. In addition to your list, we include the fact that Thanksgiving transends religion. We are a diverse extended family, and do a pretty good job of checking it at the door when we come together. Happy Thanksgiving, Wendy and Brad. We are thankful that you are there for us, too.

  92. Hi Fred,I can’t locate the letter online from Eugene Bozza, but since I have read your columns in the Daily Record for several years, all I can say is that Ms Bozza must not read your words often. If there was anyone who championed the issues of open government and reducing wasteful spending in NJ… that person is you!PS – I support Steve Lonegan for Governor… I think we need some radical change in NJ. Agree or disagree, I think Christie and Corzine will just be more of the same…

  93. Das schlimme ist, dass dieses Weibsvolk immer und an jeder Stelle auf Gleichberechtigung herum reitet und bei der erst besten Gelegenheit ziehen dann dieses Argument “T´schuldigung… ich bin eine Frau” aus dem Ärmel.Und wir sind noch armseeliger… weil wir das Spiel mit machen.

  94. Est-ce que l’application « iFart » qui simule les pêts est déjà optimisé iPhone 5 ? Parceque là ca m’inquiète un peu de pas avoir de news à ce sujet. Merci de votre aide.

  95. You’re a tough one, but I bet if you and i sat down for an hour and went through your posts, we would discover your niche staring at us.

  96. Also, I don’t believe that the enemy is against each other, instead I believe that the true enemy is the natarians. So I believe that most efficiently travian players should work together like a one big meta-alliance against the natarians and secure the world wonder. In that perspective, We don’t need to needlessly send troops do die in a fight against one another. We can “crop-lock” the natarians, continuously farm the natarians and work together to build the world wonder.Travian is about cooperation and I think we should all cooperate toward the one ultimate goal.

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